Writing
Analysis and commentary on betting integrity, trading markets and regulation — written from the inside.
Prediction markets processed $3.5 billion in volume during the 2024 US election. Most people citing them had no idea what they were looking at. A plain-English explainer covering how prediction markets work, why they beat bookmakers at producing accurate probabilities, the cognitive biases that can corrupt them, and why the CFTC v. states legal battle keeps them in the news every week.
Read the full piece →The UKGC classified prediction markets as gambling in February. Whether that position holds or faces legal challenge, the governance work needs to happen now. On what responsible prediction market operation in the UK actually requires — and why the operator that builds it first defines the category.
Read the full piece →The regulated industry’s central argument for market liberalisation has never been that betting is inherently harmless. An examination of channelization, athlete welfare evidence, and what responsible product stewardship requires.
Read the full piece →Polymarket wants to be taken seriously as a truth-telling mechanism. But when a price moves sharply the night before a vote, the instinct of anyone from regulated betting markets is immediate: someone knows something. Accurate and clean are not the same thing. A look at the Hayek problem, the manipulation threshold, and what an honest disclosure framework might actually require.
Read the full piece →